Analysis on the risks and Countermeasures of 3G de

Analysis on the risks and Countermeasures of China's development of 3G

3G license issuance is imminent, which is both an opportunity and a challenge for China's mobile communication industry. In order to enable mobile operators to pursue advantages and avoid disadvantages in the process of Developing 3G, it is necessary to analyze the risks that may be encountered in the development of 3G in China before 3G is officially put into commercial use, and put forward reasonable suggestions, with a view to minimizing the risks of 3G development of mobile operators

the risks faced by Chinese mobile operators in Developing 3G are as follows:

1 Market risk

it is mentioned in project risk analysis that if the new products or services produced by the enterprise do not match the market and cannot meet the needs of the market, it may bring greater risks to the enterprise. For mobile operators Developing 3G, market risks are mainly reflected in the following aspects:

(1) market acceptance of 3G services

as we all know, iridium's technical level is higher than that of existing communication satellites, but iridium has gone bankrupt. Why? The main reason is that there is no market demand for iridium technology. At present, the 3G development status of Hutchison Whampoa in Hong Kong, the overwhelming growth rate of 3G users in Japan and the popularity of domestic short messages all seem to indicate the bright prospects of China's 3G market. However, the GDP is only a quarter of that of Japan. The huge cultural differences and different operation patterns make us have to examine China's acceptance of 3G. Without market acceptance, there will be no users as the basis. Developing 3G is tantamount to building a castle in the air

(2) market acceptance time of 3G services

market acceptance time of 3G services is affected by users, services and marketing methods

users are business users and sources of income. Before 3G services are launched, it is necessary to clarify which characteristics of users are potential 3G users. At present, although short messages and color ring tones (Xuanling) have opened the door to the development of non voice services, the voice revenue of operators still accounted for 88% of the total revenue in 2003. In this case, it is difficult to determine how attractive 3G transmission rate is to users compared with 2G and 2.5G

the key to Developing 3G lies in data services, but from the perspective of countries that have opened 3G services, 3G networks have not yet developed good data services, lack of "killer" applications, and business development is not ideal. Although everyone has reached a consensus on the issue of "data service is the future development direction", it is still difficult to develop a "killer service" such as 2G era SMS in the 3G era

at present, operators have taken precautions to solve the problem of terminals, so as to avoid the dilemma of Developing 3G users in the early stage of NTTDoCoMo. However, as far as the current situation is concerned, the problem of terminal bottlenecks cannot be ruled out in the early stage of China's development of 3G services. In addition, the channels also need to be transformed, and the entire tariff market also needs to be renovated

from the above analysis, it can be seen that Chinese operators are facing many challenges in the early stage of Developing 3G business, whether in terms of users, business or marketing methods, which virtually increases the risk

(3) market competition

the issuance of 3G licenses undoubtedly gives the whole mobile communication market an opportunity to reshuffle. Therefore, no matter how many licenses are issued, the intensity of competition in the whole market will be unprecedented

from the perspective of international competition, Vodafone, NTT DoCoMo, at&t, France Telecom, SK Telecom and a large number of foreign operators have long established offices in China. When 3G is launched, Chinese operators will invest a lot of money and face huge risks. This may be the best opportunity for foreign operators to enter China. At that time, China's mobile operators will face the risk of entering the global telecommunications arena and participating in international competition challenges in many aspects, such as market, products, services and talents

from the perspective of domestic competition, the issuance of 3G licenses is bound to break the current situation of China Mobile and China Unicom unifying the mobile world. By then, those who have entered the mobile communication industry will go all out to maintain market advantages, and new entrants will spare no effort to win a place. Compared with the current market, it is understood that the competition in the whole market will be even better

for operators, the rich business platform, low-cost value-added services and the improvement of ARPU brought by 3G are all based on market acceptance. However, through the above analysis, we can see that to transform the potential demand of 3G into practical applications, we still face risks in users, businesses, competition and other aspects

2. Financial risk

people have a process of gradually accepting everything, and 3G is no exception. Therefore, it is not difficult to imagine that compared with the current 2G, the number of users in the initial stage of 3G construction will be less, thus bringing less revenue to enterprises

however, 3G construction requires a lot of investment at the initial stage, which is a problem that every 3G operator will encounter. The experience of NTT DoCoMo and Hutchison Whampoa has fully proved this. Although there is no problem for Chinese mobile operators to spend a high price to obtain 3G licenses, in order to meet the requirements of coverage, a large amount of investment is also required in the initial stage of 3G construction. According to rational and conservative estimates, within five years after the issuance of 3G licenses, the investment scale of system equipment in China's entire mobile market will be about 500billion yuan

the increase in depreciation caused by the increase in investment has greatly affected the cost of enterprises. In addition, terminal subsidies are also one of the main factors that increase the cost of enterprises. At the initial stage of 3G construction, the terminal price is relatively high, and foreign operators generally adopt subsidy policies when developing 3G services. Under the pressure of competition, in order to attract and consolidate users, domestic operators should also adopt subsidy policies, which will generate a large number of terminal subsidy fees

the situation of less income increase and larger cost increase makes the yield of 3G projects low. Experts predict that the return on investment of 3G usually takes 3-8 years, which further aggravates the financial pressure of operators and brings greater risks to enterprises

3. talent risk

at present, the competition for talent among mobile communication manufacturers has reached a white hot level. "The mountain rain is coming, and the wind is all over the building". In 2004, the surging talent competition among Huawei, ZTE, TCL, Siemens, ut Starcom and other manufacturers cannot help but remind people of the recruitment before the arrival of 3G. According to the latest report of Jishi information, when China entered the peak period of 3G infrastructure construction, it was conservatively estimated that the market gap of 3G talents would also reach more than 500000. Moreover, at present, 50.7% of 3G talents are gathered under the banner of telecom equipment manufacturers, and only 29% of talents are in telecom operators. Therefore, it is not difficult to imagine that after the issuance of 3G licenses, foreign and domestic operators will compete for 3G talents more than they do now. The competition of the industry is first reflected in the competition of talents, and the competition of talents will eventually affect the competition of enterprises. Therefore, the talent shortage faced by China after the issuance of 3G licenses is a potential risk that enterprises cannot ignore

4. management risk

management risk refers to the risk of investment failure caused by poor management in the process of production and operation. Through the analysis of NTT DoCoMo and other operators in the initial stage of Developing 3G services, the author believes that domestic operators also have risks in the supply of 3G equipment and content

3g network construction is a huge system engineering, and any problem in any link will have a negative impact on the whole project. In the early stage of 3G license issuance, all major domestic operators are eager to try. It can be imagined that after the issuance of 3G licenses, when major operators start 3G construction projects one after another, they are bound to purchase 3G equipment in large quantities. At that time, the insufficient supply of network equipment and terminal equipment may become an obstacle to the 3G construction of enterprises. The lack of equipment is tantamount to "making bricks without straw" for enterprises

3g has built a good platform for data services, enabling operators to provide users with richer and more creative services such as entertainment, sports, learning, finance, etc. on the basis of the original mobile voice services. However, these services will be difficult to achieve only by relying on operators, and effective cooperation must be carried out with each sp/cp. At present, there are still many problems in the management of SP by mobile operators. For example, indiscriminate charging of SMS has always been a hot complaint in the telecommunications industry. One of the characteristics of 3G service is that content is king. In order to make 3G rich and colorful content favored by more and more consumers, we must strengthen the effective management of sp/cp. In addition, the development of 3G services in China also faces risks brought by policies and environment

in order to reduce the risk of 3G construction, it is recommended that all operators do a good job in the following aspects:

☆ vigorously explore the market

first, clarify user acceptance, that is, information transmission ability. In 2003, transportation and communication expenses accounted for less than 12% of per capita consumption expenditure, less than one third of Engel's coefficient (37%) in the same period. According to Maslow's hierarchy of needs theory, with the continuous forward and high-speed development of the economy, in the process of changing from the type of having enough to eat and wear to the type of enjoying and developing by contacting our company and transportation units in time in case of damage, the Engel coefficient is bound to decrease. According to experts' analysis, the reduced expenditure is more likely to be transferred to entertainment and transportation communication. This shows that the proportion of communication in people's lives still has great room for appreciation. Therefore, people have a certain ability to accept the future 3G services

secondly, segment users

market segmentation is the basis of business development. The most fundamental reason why SK Telecom can develop 1million 3G users in eight months is its accurate market judgment. The pollution caused by the plastic granulator process is often an important source of environmental pollution in China, which is combined with the potential development power of 3G

high end customers are the focus of mobile operators in the 3G era. At the same time, fashionable users who are sensitive to new things are also the "golden key" for operators to open the 3G market. Therefore, whether to provide customized telecommunication services for these two types of users will become the key factor for the smooth development of 3G users

for China's mobile operators, in the process of market segmentation, high-end users can keep pace with fashion users, and then take age as the main line, income, occupation, gender and other factors as the auxiliary line, comprehensively consider China's national characteristics and other factors, subdivide users into different types, and formulate different strategies on this basis

third, launch differentiated services

in the process of Developing 3G services, it is recommended that all operators adopt the method of "continuing the old and bringing forth the new", that is, in the early stage of 3G construction, while retaining the existing 2G services, they should actively launch 3G new services. The reason for this is that voice business is still an important source of enterprise revenue in the short term, whether for current mobile communication operators or future mobile operators. Therefore, 3G network operators should retain the original 2G services at the initial stage to adapt to users' usage habits and ensure revenue sources. In order to find new revenue growth points, operators should innovate and change on the basis of inheritance, and provide users with richer and more creative services. Using the experience of 3G operators for reference, we should use the brand effect of 3G to guide user experience and use 3G services. At present, depending on