Analysis on the sales volume of China's mining mac

Analysis on the sales volume of China's mining machinery market in August 2017

according to the statistical data of the mining machinery branch of China Construction Machinery Industry Association, the 25 host machine manufacturing enterprises included in the branch's statistics from January to August 2017 sold 91439 sets of various mining machinery products (including exports), a year-on-year increase of 101.1%. The sales volume from January to August has exceeded the annual sales volume of 2016 (70320 sets) by 30%. Among them, 85766 units were sold in the domestic market (excluding Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan, the same below), with a year-on-year increase of 111.1%, and 5641 units were exported, with a year-on-year increase of 17.8%

in August 2017, a total of 8714 mining machinery products were sold, with a year-on-year increase of 99.5%. Affected by seasonality, the sales volume increased by 13.8% month on month. Among them, 7952 units were sold in the domestic market, with a year-on-year increase of 106.1%, and 757 units were sold in the export market, with a year-on-year increase of 49.6%. The domestic market sales growth fell by about 20 percentage points month on month. With the gradual emergence of the high base effect, it is expected that the domestic mining machinery market will decline in a single month from September

Figure 1 sales volume and year-on-year changes in China's mining machinery market in the past decade

from January to August 2017, the sales volume of most enterprises increased significantly, especially the rapid growth of the sales volume of industry leading enterprises drove the overall growth of the industry. Therefore, among the top ten enterprises with high overall machine cost, the sales volume of seven enterprises increased by more than 100%, and the overall increase of CR10 reached 115.0%, significantly exceeding the overall increase of the industry. Compared with the rapid expansion of leading enterprises, the sales volume of small and medium-sized enterprises in some industries grows slowly, the market concentration of the industry continues to improve, and the competition pattern of the industry will be further adjusted

2 analysis of the export market of mining machinery

5641 mining machinery were exported from January to August 2017, accounting for 6.2% of the total sales, with a year-on-year increase of 17.8%. Among them, 757 sets were exported in August, up 49.6% year-on-year. From the perspective of product structure, small excavation and medium excavation are still the main export models. Sany, caterpillar and Liugong occupy the top three in export sales

Figure 2 product structure of China's mining machinery export market in 2017

3 domestic mining machinery market analysis

3.1 domestic market overview

from January to August 2017, the domestic mining machinery market sales volume was 85766 units, with a year-on-year increase of 111.1%. Among them, 8714 units were sold in August, with a year-on-year increase of 106.1%. The growth rate fell compared with the previous two months (the year-on-year increase in June and July was more than 125%). According to the sales in 2016, the high base effect will be more obvious from September to December, and the year-on-year increase is expected to continue to decline in the coming months

from January to August 2017, the sales volume in the western region was significantly ahead of that in the eastern and central regions, but the increase was slightly lower than that in the Middle East. East China, Southwest China and central China occupy the main domestic markets. North China and Northeast China recovered significantly, benefiting from the recovery of steel, coal mining and other industries, the deepening of the integration strategy of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei, the infrastructure construction of the Tianjin National Games and the gradual implementation of the construction plan of xiong'an new area. The growth trend of mining machinery market in North China and Northeast China appeared. However, the action plan for the comprehensive treatment of air pollution in autumn and winter 2017-2018 in Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei and surrounding areas recently released by the environmental protection department will have an impact on the earthwork engineering operations in North China and affect the terminal demand of construction machinery to a certain extent

Figure 3 mining machinery sales and year-on-year changes in different regions in 2017 1

Figure 4 mining machinery sales and year-on-year changes in different regions in 2017 2

3.2 domestic market brand pattern

from January to August 2017, domestic, Japanese, European, American and Korean enterprises sold 42858, 18734, 14346 and 9828 units respectively, with market share of 50.0%, 21.8%, 16.7% and 11.5% respectively. Sany, caterpillar and XCMG occupy the top three in domestic market sales

Figure 5 brand pattern of domestic mining machinery market in 2017

3.3 product structure of domestic market

from January to August 2017, the sales volume of domestic large-scale mining, medium-sized mining and small-scale mining were 12051, 20464 and 53251 units respectively, with market shares of 14.1%, 23.9% and 62.1% respectively. Mini excavators of less than 6 tons and small excavators of 6-13 tons account for more than half of the domestic market share

from the perspective of sales volume changes of products of different specifications, the sales volume of large excavation, medium excavation and small excavation increased by 7566, 11826 and 25753 units respectively year-on-year, with year-on-year increases of 169%, 137% and 94% respectively

from the change of product structure in the past year, the market share of small excavation has declined recently, and the medium excavation and large excavation markets have rebounded. The change of product structure also reflects the recent change of market demand

Figure 6 product structure of domestic mining machinery market in 2017

3.4 domestic market concentration

from January to August 2017, the domestic market concentration cr4=52.0%, cr8=76.3%, which is basically the same as that from January to July (the previous value cr4=52.0%, cr8=76.4%). At present, the domestic mining machinery industry is an industry with high market concentration

Figure 7 market concentration of domestic mining machinery in 2017

from the perspective of different model markets, due to the high technical threshold and market access barriers, the market is more occupied by European, American, Japanese and domestic leading enterprises, resulting in the domestic market concentration of large-scale mining is higher than that of medium-sized mining and small-scale mining. The market concentration of medium excavation and small excavation is close to that of the overall familiar equipment, such as the working principle, operating procedures, ordinary maintenance, etc; Market concentration and market competition are relatively more sufficient

figure 8 market concentration of different models in the domestic mining machinery market in 2017

3.5 domestic market distribution

sufficient and low-cost upstream raw materials (electrolytic aluminum) and broad utilization market in 2017. From January to August, Jiangsu Province sold more than 6000 units, and Anhui, Shandong, Sichuan and Henan sold more than 5000 units. East China, southwest and central China represented by the above provinces occupied the main domestic market. Affected by market rebound and low base, the growth rate in Northeast and North China is significantly higher than that in other regions, and the market recovery is obvious. The sales volume and growth rate of Anhui Province are in the forefront of the country, and the follow-up market development trend needs continuous attention

Figure 9 sales volume of various provinces in the domestic mining machinery market in 2017

Figure 10 year-on-year changes in sales volume of various provinces in the domestic mining machinery market in 2017

the top five provinces in terms of large-scale mining sales from January to August 2017 are Inner Mongolia (1015), Shandong (853), Sichuan (802), Guizhou (714) and Henan (618); The top five provinces in terms of sales volume are Jiangsu (1886), Anhui (1595), Guizhou (1419), Shandong (1327) and Henan (1215); In this case, the top five provinces of small excavation and sales are Jiangsu (4329), Anhui (3911), Shandong (3669), Sichuan (3414) and Henan (3182)

Figure 11 the sales volume of large excavation in various provinces of the domestic excavation machinery market in 2017

Figure 12 the sales volume of medium excavation in various provinces of the domestic excavation machinery market in 2017

Figure 13 the sales volume of small excavation in various provinces of the domestic excavation machinery market in 2017

3.6 average operating hours

average operating hours is one of the important indicators to measure the construction demand of excavation machinery and determine the future development of the industry. According to experience, the break even points of large excavation, medium excavation and small excavation are 2500-3000 hours/year, 2000-2500 hours/year and 1500 hours/year respectively. When the construction demand exceeds the break even point, the market demand will increase significantly

according to the survey and statistics of the mining machinery branch, the number of hours of mining machinery attendance has increased slightly in recent years, and the equipment attendance rate has also stabilized at a high level

Figure 14 changes in average operating hours and attendance rate of mining machinery in recent year

according to the data released by Komatsu official, the changes in average operating hours of Komatsu construction machinery in recent year are basically consistent with the branch survey statistics. The increase in the average operating hours of equipment reflects the increase in downstream demand and provides a steady support for market demand

Figure 15 changes in the average operating hours of Komatsu construction machinery in the past year

(data source:)

4 market forecast

at present, the state's regulation of real estate has been further strengthened. In July 2017, the growth rate of real estate investment continued to decline to 7.9%, which has fallen for three consecutive months. It may continue to decline in the future, which will affect the future development of the mining machinery market. As another important force driving the mining machinery market, the growth rate of fixed asset investment also fell. Affected by the high base factor last year, the growth rate of railway investment this year is slow. Fixed asset investment in highway and waterway transportation has replaced railway investment and become the main source of investment in the transportation industry

the action plan for the comprehensive treatment of air pollution in autumn and winter 2017-2018 in Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei and surrounding areas recently released by the environmental protection department requires that, except for major livelihood projects and key projects that have been specially approved by the government, earth and stone works such as road works and water conservancy projects and house demolition construction should be stopped during the heating season. Among them, Tianjin has made it clear that from October 2017 to March 2018, all kinds of Engineering earthwork operations will be stopped in the built-up area. The release of the plan will have a certain impact on the construction machinery market in North China, especially in the "2+26" cities

according to the development trends and historical laws of the industry, it is expected that the sales growth rate from September to December 2017 will fall sharply, and the continuous doubling growth mode will end. It is estimated that about 120000 mining machines will be sold in 2017, an increase of more than 50% year-on-year in 2016