The hottest machinery epidemic promotes the value

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Machinery epidemic promotes "machine replacement", and the value of service robots highlights

source: Research

Article Liu Haibo left take-off, Li ruipeng

under the COVID-19, in order to reduce human to human contact and infection, the demand for "machine replacement" has been stimulated, and the prospect of 10 points has been widely used, and services have stepped into the forefront of epidemic prevention in the fields of medical treatment, distribution, patrol inspection, household use and so on. The service robot industry is currently in the early stage of development, and the epidemic is expected to become a catalyst for the development of the industry. We are optimistic about the development prospect of the industry, and we mainly recommend the leaders of sweeping robots and electric robots

▍ short term catalysis: under the COVID-19, the value of service robots is prominent

1) medical treatment: robots replace medical staff to complete disinfection, guidance, drug delivery and other work. Typical cases are titanium rice disinfection robots and Dajiang disinfection UAVs

2) distribution: robots distribute three meals to isolated people, typical cases are the distribution robots of Yunji, Qinglang and Purdue

3) patrol inspection: in densely populated areas, robots automatically patrol at the same time, monitoring personnel's temperature, access, wearing masks, etc. typical cases are the police patrol inspection robots that are selected as the best

4) home use: disinfect the home environment, such as the covos floor sweeping robot

▍ long term prospects: the industry is in a growth period, and China is expected to lead the development of the industry

in 2019, the global/Chinese service robot industry scale was US $9.46/2.2 billion, with a year-on-year +14.1%/+33.3%, and the five-year CAGR was +21.9%/+36.8%. The Chinese market accounted for 25% of the global market. In the fields of unmanned aerial vehicles, floor sweeping robots, distribution robots and so on, China has produced world leading enterprises. China has global competitive advantages in market size, industrial chain and industrial environment, and is expected to become a leader in the field of global service robots

▍ industry changes: the prosperity of sub industries is divided, and leading enterprises stand out

1) Technological Development: the intelligence of service robots is mainly reflected in the technologies of navigation and movement, motion control, and perceptual interaction (vision, voice). Some leading enterprises have formed technology platforms and exported modular core components and technical solutions

2) application scenarios: each segmentation scenario has changed from blooming flowers to boom differentiation. The leaders of high boom sub industries represented by covos and Yijiahe have begun to land in the capital market, and, youbixuan and No. 9 intelligence are also preparing for the IPO of the science and technology innovation board

3) whole industry chain: China has global leading enterprises in the three links of underlying hardware, technical modules and terminal products, and the core components are not subject to foreign suppliers

▍ risk factors:

the development of service robot products is lower than expected; The market acceptance of service robots is lower than expected

▍ investment strategy

among listed companies, we mainly recommend: 1) covos: there are positive changes in the data of the sweeping robot industry, and the boom is expected to usher in an inflection point. According to the company's performance forecast, the net profit forecast for 2019 was lowered to 160million yuan (the original forecast was 290million yuan), and the net profit forecast for 2020/21 was maintained at 530/710 million yuan. Although we have been studying materials and some material technologies, the current PE valuation should be 93/27/20 times, maintaining the "buy in" rating. 2) Yijiahe: the orders of the company's new product live working robots are expected to be in full volume in 2020. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2019/20/21 is expected to be 240/32/400 million yuan, corresponding to the current PE valuation of 40/31/25 times, maintaining the "buy" rating

in addition, the main body and force measuring device of the computer-based universal material testing machine suggest to pay attention to the other two main lines, 1) the targets of the application of products in this epidemic: (disinfection robot), (temperature measurement and inspection robot) and so on; 2) There are targets with good layout in the field of service robots: robots (carrying out medical robots and distribution robot business), (participating in sizerui medical robots), (participating in Kangli Youlan robots), etc

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