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2022-08-16
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Research on mechanical equipment industry: Policy friendly, construction machinery is expected to continue to exceed expectations

1 Recommended combination

[Sany Heavy Industry], [Jerry Co., Ltd.] [pilot intelligence], [Zoomlion], [Jingsheng electromechanical]

[Ruike laser], [Maiwei Co., Ltd.] [Hengli hydraulic], [two-color microscope uses a group of green transmission light and a group of red reflection light to shine on micro particles at the same time] [Zhejiang Dingli] [North Huachuang]

2 Investment points

Social Finance and loans have improved, and the overall manufacturing investment has benefited

in March, social finance increased by 2.86 trillion yuan, a significant increase of 1.28 trillion yuan year-on-year, of which loans to entities were 1.96 trillion yuan, an increase of nearly 820 billion yuan year-on-year, which is the main reason for the bright social finance data in March. In terms of loans, RMB loans increased by 1.69 trillion yuan in March, an increase of 577.7 billion yuan year-on-year. In addition, M1 and M2 both rose. Fiscal investment was strengthened, and M2 rose to 8.6% year-on-year. M1 continued to rise to 4.6% year-on-year, reflecting the continuous improvement of corporate liquidity

the chain of real estate and infrastructure continued to benefit. The relatively loose monetary and fiscal policies have stimulated domestic demand for real estate and infrastructure. The approval of infrastructure projects represented by rail transit and other transportation infrastructure has been significantly accelerated, and the growth rate of infrastructure investment is expected to stabilize and rebound since 2019. Relevant industrial chains are expected to continue to benefit, and construction machinery, elevators, rail transit and other sectors are expected to continue to benefit

the manufacturing investment chain also benefited significantly. Since the second half of 2018, the growth rate of laser, robot, industrial control and other manufacturing investment chain sectors has fallen due to economic pressure and trade war. According to our grassroots research results and the first quarterly report of Listed Companies in the industry, since the Spring Festival in 2019, benefiting from the loose policy, the expectation of easing the trade war, and the gradual release of suppressed demand in 2018, the performance of Jinan experimental machine factory Jinan new era Gold Testing Instrument Co., Ltd. low temperature tank compressor is related to the cooling effect of the low temperature tank, and the above sectors have warmed up

investment suggestions: continue to recommend the construction machinery sector, the first leader [Sany Heavy Industry], in addition to recommending [Zoomlion], etc. The laser sector recommends [Ruike laser] and pays attention to [Han's laser]. The robot sector pays attention to [robot], [Kelai electromechanical], [Yijiahe], etc

[construction machinery] the sales volume of excavators in March can minimize the injury of safety belts to people, with a year-on-year +16% month on month +136%. The policy is friendly, and the construction machinery is expected to continue to exceed expectations

the sales volume in March was +16% year on year +136%, maintaining a slight increase: the sales volume of excavators in March was 44278, with a year-on-year +16%, a month on month +136%, and the cumulative monthly sales volume was 74779, with a cumulative year-on-year +25%. According to the grassroots, We expect that the sales volume of excavators in 2019 will be basically the same as that in 2018, but the small excavation will continue to grow due to the shortage of rural labor. Komatsu's operating hours in March were 136.3h, with a year-on-year increase of +6.5% and a month on month increase of +203.6%. The impact of the Spring Festival has passed, and the operating rate has rebounded under normal production scheduling. Sany Heavy industry ranks first, and the market share of domestic brands has rebounded: from the perspective of key enterprises, Sany Heavy Industry sold 11208 units in March, with a year-on-year increase of +35% and a month on month increase of +122%, leading the industry; In a single month, the market share was 25%, with a year-on-year increase of +3.65pct and a month on month increase of -1.68pct. The market share remained generally stable (in 2018, the market share stabilized at about 23%), and the leading position was stable

the year-on-year growth rate of export sales has rebounded significantly, and the growth rate of small excavators is leading: in March, 2377 excavators were exported, with a year-on-year increase of +48%, and the growth rate has rebounded sharply, accounting for 5%, with a decline. In March, the export sales volume of Sany was 764 units, accounting for 32% of the total export volume of the industry. The export sales volume was +63% year-on-year, and the cumulative year-on-year growth was +49%

Real Estate + infrastructure stabilized, prolonging the boom cycle of the industry: the monthly real estate investment completion increased by 12% year-on-year, and the investment growth picked up; The new construction area of houses increased by 6% year-on-year, an increase of 3.1pct compared with the growth rate in 2018. Monthly infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) rose 4.3% year-on-year. Recently, the national policy has been relaxed, and the approval of infrastructure projects represented by rail transit and other transportation infrastructure has been significantly accelerated. Since 2019, the growth rate of infrastructure investment is expected to stabilize and rebound. In addition, the stricter environmental protection verification will speed up the release of renewal demand. The switch from national three to national four standards is expected to promote the early release of renewal demand and prolong the boom cycle of the construction machinery industry

investment suggestion: continue to give priority to [Sany Heavy Industry]. We raise the company's performance expectation in 2019 to 9.3 billion, and the company's annual net profit is expected to be 9.3 billion, 11 billion and 11.9 billion respectively, corresponding to 12, 10 and 9 times PE respectively, giving a "buy" rating. For the rest, [Hengli hydraulic] and [Zoomlion] are recommended. It is suggested to pay attention to Liugong, China Longgong, etc

risk tip: low expectation of economic growth; 2. The fabric in contact with the fixture shall be reinforced with curing adhesive; Low expectation of downstream industry demand; Industry competition worsened

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